Good morning
Earnings season is coming to an end with a big week ahead for retail. The good news is that there will be another one starting in a few weeks. There are several sectors that are in consolidation mode near their highs and for the most part, technically, they look very good. There are a couple of sectors that have reason for concern like the energy and Semi conductor sectors which may be in for more downside pressure. The energy space has a conference this week in Denver that starts Monday and runs through Wed that could impact some names in the space. FANG is also cooling a bit but this just means that money may look to flow elsewhere.
The Trump administration and a China delegation are meeting this upcoming week and any positive headlines of a potential deal would likely be good for the markets. On the flip side, if the delegation leaves with more hard nose rhetoric from either side the markets could react negatively. We also have the FOMC minutes and the annual Jackson Hole symposium that kicks off this week where Powell will be speaking. This could also move markets depending on the Fed's take on interest rates and inflation.
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Indexes and sectors of interest this week
Still awaiting news on drug pricing from the Trump administration which could happen this week. XLV is getting extended and approaching potential price resistance with the IBB consolidating just over the 50day and just below potential price resistance. Any announcement could impact the space we will have to wait and see if it will be a negative for the space. Probably a good space to take some profit ahead of the announcement.
With oil and energy struggling transportation could benefit Several airline stocks look decent on the daily in potential flat top breakout areas $DAL and $HA are two that stand out
Aerospace and defense Flagging near all time highs recent upgrades in the sector another case of big thick stocks more swing or long term hold types can also be negatively impacted by a stronger dollar
Industrials are coming up into potential price resistance but good news on the trade war frond may actually push it through that resistance typically big thick stocks in the space.
Consumer products gapped over trend line resistance many of these stocks are big thick stocks that have had some nice moves and could be looking at some profit taking.in the near term. this sector has had an amazing run in a very short period of time. These are more long term hold or swing plays > at the very least it would be good to see these names consolidate for a bit. Buying in now would feel like chasing to me
Big week for retail earnings the XRT still looks strong as it consolidates just below all time highs
Consumer discretionary also looks strong as we get some earnings from that space as well this week
Keep an eye on the dollar strength.. If we get good news from China talks we could see some follow through on the dollar weakness that started on Thursday last week and got some follow through on Friday after news of China and the US establishing trade talks with a fairly defined target for November to come to an agreement.
Small caps of the tree sectors this one is the most intriguing to me has a great looking setup on the daily and has been in consolidation mode. This sector could be tied to dollar strength and if wee see a weaker dollar that could be a negative for the space.. If we see a stronger dollar that would likely be positive
Large caps and multinationals would benefit from a weakening dollar ... Still flirting with potential all time highs
Tech could see some pressure if the SMH continues to break down after breaking and closing below its 200 day and major long term trend line
*Last weeks stocks to watch for the pro members and their performance for the week *
This weeks sample off of the stocks to watch video for the pro members
Earnings on Wed potential price support could be a nice swing with some risk into earnings .. Could also be a day trade after earnings
Big thick stock more of a swing or long term hold play flirting with a 33 roll 32 could be acting as support
Another potential swing or long term hold play with Liberty taking a nice position in this price area > earnings already behind them entry could be near the 25.50 26 area
Potential flat top break out on the daily could be a day trade or swing play likely going to be tied to oil moves.... may need to consolidate a bit more
Semi conductor name so it could see some pullback if the SMH tanks... Has an event this week that could give it a lift but if its battling the sector >there may not be a lot of follow through could be a day trade opp and a potential swing on a gap fill to potential support
*Highly anticipated earnings *
Source Earnings Whispers
NEXT WEEK'S MAJOR U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS & FED SPEAKERS
TIME (ET) REPORT PERIOD ACTUAL FORECAST PREVIOUS
MONDAY, AUG. 20
None scheduled
TUESDAY, AUG. 21
None scheduled
WEDNESDAY, AUG. 22
10 am Existing home sales July 5.41 mln 5.38 mln
2 pm FOMC minutes 7/31-8/1
THURSDAY, AUG. 23
8:30 am Weekly jobless claims 8/18 215,000 212,000
9:45 am Markit manufacturing PMI (flash) Aug. -- 55.3
9:45 am Markit services PMI (flash) Aug. -- 56.0
10 am New home sales July 641,000 631,000
FRIDAY, AUG. 24
8:30 am Durable goods orders July -0.9% 0.8%
8:30 am Core capital goods orders July -- 0.7%
10 am Jerome Powell speaks
Source MarketWatch.com
