Good morning
Earnings season is winding down with retail one of the last sectors to report. Earnings were extremely strong with roughly 79 percent of the companies that have reported beating estimates. Technically the indexes and several sectors appear to be looking tired. We have extremely low volatility but that started to change on Thursday and Friday of last week. Remember that August. September and October can be rough months for bulls historically so we need to be prepared for some potential volatility. There is more economic data this week that may move the markets and I am sure we will be hearing more chatter about Turkey, Iran and China. Keep an eye on the dollar if we see some strength that could benefit the small caps and put some pressure on the big multinationals. Check out the break down of the individual sectors and indexes below. Alway have a plan and never chase your trade. Know your risk reward and be patient. Best of success trading next week.
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Big week ahead for retail the XRT is sitting at potential price resistance and has run prior to the sector earnings. If earnings come in strong we could be looking at taking out all time highs for the ETF. Keep an eye on earnings and potential margin pressure for the impact of tariffs by the retailers reporting this week .
Health care and Biotech could have some news out of the White House about drug pricing. With the IBB we could be looking at a short term double top and with the XLV we may need a pause to absorb the move we just had. 91.50 could also act as resistance a pull to the 50 day could be healthy if it is a controlled low volume pullback
Transportation is pulling after a nice run into potential price resistance in the 202 area another sector that may want a 50 day test for support Has the look of a short term double top
Industrials Found resistance at the 77 price wall currently testing a cluster of moving averages as potential support. A break below could put some significant pressure on the space. Watch the 74 area> a close below that level raises caution flags to potentially avoid the space for longs next area of support could be in the 70 area
Consumer staples on my TC2000 monthly chart you can see the sector has bounced off the 50 month and tested the underside of the long term trend line and found resistance there. It closed blow the 200 on Friday Next level of potential support could be around the 52 price level and the 50 day
It Could be a make or break week for semi's >NVDA reports this week and the NVDA chart and SMH chart look almost identical both are making recent lower highs. What they haven't done yet is make lower lows. If we wind up taking out the 200 day and the long term trend line on SMH we would be loosing one of the stronger sectors that have helped lead this bull market
The energy names have been in consolidation more after the recent huge run. They will be tied to oil and if things heat up with Iran Venezuela or Turkey oil could get a lift which may be a catalyst for the energy sector
Small caps have been a leader and if the dollar continues to strengthen it could be good for the small cap space. The 169 170 area is acting as pretty good resistance testing the 50 day as support if that breaks look for potential support in the 162.50 area if that fails we want to see 160 hold.
QQQ Potential double top testing 20 sma as support may be looking at a 50 day testing the 177 area
SPY Testing the 20 sma if it fails we ant to see it hold support in the 279 280 area near the 50 day
If the major indexes break lower we could be looking at some follow through in volatility so keep UVXY TVIX TZA on your radar for short term trading opportunities
Last Weeks Pro Member stocks to watch list and their performance
*This weeks sample of stocks to watch from the pro member video *
$WOW $SMRT $QTNT $ARRY $ALTR
Potential red to green day trade with volume or swing consideration on a pull to the 10-11 area
Full disclosure I took this on Friday in the live chat room and have already scaled out 2/3 rds looking for potential continuation with a 3 test and roll may have earnings coming up soon I could wind up just holding some lottos into earnings
Recently filled the gap on the daily 7 seems to be holding as support looking for a break with volume over 8
target 9
7.40-7.50 could be entry area with stop just below 6.75 or so
Earnings Tuesday morning I could take a lotto into earnings Sitting on the 200 day and a trend line could be ideal bounce spot
Reported strong earnings great looking weekly and daily chart third day of the move a pull to the 34.50 35 area could be an ideal entry area for a swing or long term hold> small floater testing all time highs higher risk because of the float but great looking chart
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Highly anticipated earnings for this week
Source Earnings Whispers
*Unlike last week this week we have some data that could impact markets *
NEXT WEEK'S MAJOR U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS & FED SPEAKERS
TIME (ET) REPORT PERIOD ACTUAL FORECAST PREVIOUS
MONDAY, AUG. 13
11 am Survey of consumer expectations July --
TUESDAY, AUG. 14
6 am NFIB small business index July -- 107.2
8:30 am Import price index -- -0.4%
WEDNESDAY, AUG. 15
8:30 am Retail sales July 0.1% 0.5%
8:30 am Retail sales ex-autos July 0.3% 0.4%
8:30 am Empire state index Aug. -- 22.6
8:30 am Productivity Q2 2.2% 0.4%
8:30 am Unit labor costs Q2 0.0% 2.9%
9:15 am Industrial production July 0.3% 0.6%
9:15 am Capacity utilization July 78.2% 78.0%
10 am Home builders' index Aug. -- 68
10 am Business inventories June -- 0.4%
THURSDAY, AUG. 16
8:30 am Weekly jobless claims 8/11 -- 213,000
8:30 am Housing starts July 1.274 mln 1.173mln
8:30 am Building permits July -- 1.273mln
8:30 am Philly Fed index Aug. -- 25.7
FRIDAY, AUG. 17
10 am Consumer sentiment Aug. 98.4 97.9
10 am Leading economic indicators July -- 0.5%
10 am Advance report on services Q2 -- --
Source Market Watch
