When asked > What is your biggest trading ally?
"Time is your friend; impulse is your enemy." Jack Bogle
Equities markets had a rough week after the new Fed Chair raised rates and the Trump administration announced 50 billion in potential tariffs aimed at China which sparked fears of a global trade war. Earnings season has wrapped up for the most part and the markets will likely be driven by economic and political headlines.
Technically we have some concerning developments with the SPY and XLP closing below major moving averages the QQQ & IWM about to breech a long term trend lines and the SMH failed to hold prior potential support and even though the XLE has a bear flag on the daily it remains one of the sectors I like the most with many individual energy names with good looking technical setups.
Concerning close on Friday just below the 200 day
Broke and closed below the 200 week moving average
Both about to test long term trend line support
Failed to hold 108 recent resistance as potential price support even with good earnings from MU
Bear Flag on the daily as Oil continues to show strength several name sin the sector have great looking technical setups as we are heading into driving season in the next few months. There is also a lot of insider activity in the space
One of our very sharp pro members has a keen eye on the consumer staples sector with a thesis that we are coming up into the end of the quarter and there is institutional re-balancing taking place. After the close of the quarter we could see some very oversold names catch a bounce as money comes back into the space. Think names like KHC, MO, PG, K. We may see more pain as we head into the end of the month on a shortened trading week. These are all thick stocks and are more swing or long term hold considerations.
We have been anticipating a potential retest of the recent February lows and it looks like that may happen next week. What we do not want to see is the markets close below those lows. We can breech them and rebound intra day but if we close below them then we may be looking at a more substantial correction and a new low to potentially retest in the future.
As an investor these are the times when you look for those companies you have wanted to own but you wanted to own them when they are on sale. This is when you use MULTIPLE time frames to your advantage. When you start analyzing your potential investment start by looking at the monthly chart, then the weekly and then the daily. Longer time frames have more significant areas of potential price support and resistance.
We could see more weakness next week and we may have some short term trading opportunities with TVIX UVXY LABD TZA.
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Highly anticipated earnings for next week
Source Earnings Whispers
Economic calendar for next week
Source Bloomberg
Five stocks to watch from this weeks Pro member video for trading and Investing
earnings next week oversold potential snap back play day trade opp less than 100 million shares in the float 30 percent short interest
One of the oil names that has a good looking setup of potential price support and trend line bounce
Potential red to green day trade opportunity they have a warrant conversion coming up early next month price 4.30 per share
Low floater recent IPO holding up extremely well in a tough tape could be one to consider for a swing on a pull to potential price support around 5.50 higher risk because of liquidity> trades thin
Another sector that has been beaten up pretty good even with a Fed rate increase this could be a good long term hold on a pullback to potential price support of 28 for a starter position XLF it about to test the 200 day for potential support
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