Good morning
Equities continue to struggle with many indexes and sectors either in or approaching bear market territory which is defined by a move lower of a 20 percent from the most recent high. Several big name stocks like APPL have just entered bear market territory. The average bear market can last 10-15 months with stocks dropping on average around 32 percent. However, one could make the assumption that after the longest bull run in history it could lead to one of the longest and most severe bear markets in history. I am not trying to scare anyone I am just making an observation and it is something that should be contemplated. It is not all doom and gloom in a bear markets. In fact, there can be some fantastic bounce rallies that create tremendous trading opportunities in a bear market. The bears need to trick investors into thinking the bear market is over and the bull market is on the rise again so they have to allow the markets to post some gains but the markets won't be back into a bull market until the can post at least a 20 percent gain from the most recent lows. There will likely be several bear market rallies within a bear market cycle that can last for days or weeks and for an active trader these can provide very profitable trades as long as you do not overstay your welcome. We have been cautious of the markets for the last several weeks and will remain cautious even when we see some nice rallies in the markets. I am not ready to throw in the towel and suggest we are definitively in a new bear market. I view this as a short term correction but there are some genuine concerns and only time will tell if the bull run is really over and a bear run has begun.
The SMH semiconductor space will likely be under pressure today after NVDA reporting disappointing earnings last night and is getting taken out to the woodshed this morning with a big gap lower.
It is Friday and in the current market climate I would not be looking to be aggressive in building a long term hold or swing position heading into the weekend. Keep your sizing appropriate for the the current conditions of the market. Be careful trying to play breakouts as follow through has been hard to come by so if you play them don't be too greedy and take the profits when they are there.
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Charts for the stocks listed below > Click here
$AVID
Avid Technology Sees FY19 Adj. EBITDA $60M-$65M, Sales $420M-$430M vs $420.2M Estimate potential red to green follow through day 7 likely going to act as resistance area potential day trade opp 5.90-6.15 area could be bounce area
$SFS very nice pop off earnings slicing right through all the moving averages and a longer term trend line. Could be a swing or a day trade on a red to green type move 5.75-6.00 area could be entry area for potential support
$RIBT recent 10 % owner buys flirting with 3 roll has held up well in recent market turmoil could be a swing or day trade with volume. 2.50-2.70 area for potential entry area for bounce With volume on a break over 3 could be a day trade op. Do not chase
$PXLW had a nice bounce yesterday flirting with a 4 roll and a trend line break and reclaiming the 200 day but it is in the semi space and could get dragged down with the sector
$CAMT another semi play that has a decent looking daily trying to hold onto the 200 day and potential for an 8 test and roll but it is also in the semi space and could be looking at a double bottom test in the 6.80 range where is could also be testing a longer term trend line as potential support
$OCC watching this one for more of a swing or long term hold play ideally I would like it for an entry in the 3.60-4.15 range .. I like the space and believe the next sector to lead could be the 5G space and communication equipment
$BLDR little reversal candle yesterday and a potential double bottom test. Looking for potential follow through
day trade or higher risk swing play
$PCG was looking for a snap back play and mentioned it live at the end of the day in the chat room and after market it had a snap back possible for red to green play but the snap back I was looking for already happened.
$NGVC
Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. Q4 EPS $0.09 Beats $0.04 Estimate, Sales $217.5M Beat $214.86M Estimate Natural Grocers Sees FY19 EPS $0.33-$0.40 nice daily nice earnings beat potential 17 test and roll could be a day trade or swing consideration
$EDRY recent IPO trades thin with a tough spread testing blue skies and all time highs could be in play do not chase it.
EuroDry Q3 EPS $0.62, Sales $6.793M
$DPW penny play potential day trade opp
Digital Power Q3 Sales $8.3M Up From $3.22M YoY
reported $8.3 million in sales this quarter. This is a 157.76 percent increase over sales of $3.22 million the same period last year. FY18 SAles $29M-$33M, FY19 Sales Approximately $60M
$NDRA Looking for a pull in this one for potential higher risk swing play 3.30 -3.85 entry area potentially I like the way the daily is setting up and they just did an offering that priced @ 3.90
$BCRX potential 8 test and roll
BioCryst Offers Data Showing Rapid, Sustained Plasma Concentrations Of BCX7353 In HAE Patients small trial results
